On the 26th of February, after months of claiming that “everything goes according to the plan” and “we have not started anything yet,” Russian president Vladimir Putin emerged in a new amplua frightening the Russian people with their imminent disappearance as a result of the war, trying to lift the stakes to the existential level and rally support for the war that is evidently not sufficient since such scarecrows are necessary.
Putin, to most of whose words it is vain to pay any attention after 2/24/2022, said something new by stating, “If we go down this road (of a collapse of the Russian Federation–V.O.), I think that the fates of very many peoples of Russia and most of all, certainly, the Russian people may change cardinally, simply in a cardinal way… Instead of the Russian people, there will be Muscovites, Uralites, and others.”
This is merely one of the many bricks that Putin with a stubbornness worthy of a better application puts into the foundation of the future collapse of the Russian Federation. By beginning to talk about it as an imminent threat (of course blaming the West for everything), Putin is merely repeating earlier suggestions by Medvedev and Shoigu, who are similarly trying to ramp up the existential stakes in the war.
However the curious reality is that, as Casey Michel observes in his recent article in New Republic, is that the West has hardly learned the lessons of the “Chicken Kyiv” speech by President George H.W. Bush in Kyiv in 1991, where Bush attempted to stand in the course of history by urging Ukraine to reconsider the then-palpable intention of pulling away from the USSR, mere months before the USSR dissolved.
Not only was that speech short-sighted and did not help to build trust with the newly emerging independent states, apart from the Russian Federation, but it was as useless as standing in the way of a speedy train trying to stop it.
The deja-vu of the contemporaneity is in the Western voices who hurry to proclaim that the new round of the falling apart of the Russian empire, the new states will be “unviable,” as Casey Michel observes citing an American professor Marlene Laruelle calling the prospect of “minorities” creating prosperous states “naive” (no less) and British historian Mark Galeotti.
Mark Galeotti, who we know and like for his short sardonic book A Short History of Russia (2020), presents a particularly puzzling case of an Anglophone scholar, and this case is typical. For whatever reason, before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, bunches of scholars were rather critical about the current Russian public discourse, sharing in a horrified amusement with each other the jucier and crazier bits of the Russian media. However, with the full-scale Russian invasion, they were the first to be terrified of the supposed might of the Russian state, predicted the swift fall of Kyiv, claimed it was impossible to defeat Russia, and appeared to be terrified of the nuclear war. Suddenly, their criticisms of the regime disappeared. It is almost like being a specialist in Russian studies made you, in fact, less capable of judgment than if you were a non-specialist. I can only assume that having studied the Russian discourse in depth, they were affected by it more than people who didn’t study it.
Not only were they routinely transmitting those same crazier tropes of the Russian propaganda that they criticized earlier, but–Casey Michel calls it Westsplaining–some of them began Westsplain to the colonized peoples in Russia and the public that would listen that the prospect of the dissolution of the Russian Federation was undesirable, and the future independent states could not exist without Russia.
It is not difficult to see here the familiar trope of Western colonialism at large, supposing that the presence of the colonizer is a necessary civilizational constraint without which the savages will immediately begin killing each other, regressing into the depths of ignorance and savagery immanent to them, their natural condition complicated by the presence of nukes. Perhaps the shared position of the colonizer of the Western scholars and the Russian officials would create a shared ground for them in which they find it easier to sympathize with the colonizers, however different, than with the colonized.
In his article, Casey Michel brings up the example of Sakha, one of the potentially richest regions in Russia that is nevertheless suffering from centuries of Russian colonialism that keeps it poor and nowadays uses Sakha men as cannon fodder for the project of the Russian imperial colonial conquest against Ukraine. Casey Michel contests the idea of the “inviability” of the Sakha state:
“Russians first began slaughtering the Sakha in the 1630s, with Russian forces requiring over a half-century to finally subdue them and begin seizing their land, installing slavery, torture regimes, and routine hostage-taking as matters of course. “To the Sakha, Russian rule brought all the usual ills,” Anna Reid wrote. During that half-century of initial Russian conquest, the Sakha population fell by as much as 70 percent.
And yet, despite the decimation, the Sakha survived, rebuilding their population base. They also fought. Century after century, Sakha launched revolt after revolt against Moscow and St. Petersburg, first against tsarist officials and then against the Bolsheviks. During the late Soviet period, things were hardly better: “Frequent ethnic brawling” was routine, with “no-go areas for Slavs” in many Sakha towns. Things were so bad that Soviet troops were forced to intervene in 1979, with ethnic riots rocking the region a few years later. All of it culminated in the early 1990s, when Sakha leadership affirmed Sakha’s right to secede, to form its own army, and to declare that all Sakha natural resources belonged “to the Sakha population.”
And what natural resources they are: billions of dollars in diamond mines, deep deposits of gold, a hydrocarbon industry that is “of great importance … for all of Russia.” Toss in sea access—which will only improve as the Arctic Sea, unfortunately, warms—and the Sakha Republic suddenly begins looking far more “viable” than many of the former Soviet republics, all of which have now enjoyed decades of independence. But thanks to the Kremlin’s neo-imperialism, much of Sakha remains impoverished and underdeveloped—and Sakha residents have now become cannon fodder for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
None of this is to say Sakha independence is, or even necessarily should be, forthcoming. That is a decision for Sakha residents, and especially those among the Sakha nation butchered and bludgeoned by Russian forces for centuries. But the Westsplainers have it all wrong: The Sakha Republic has more than enough cohesion, resource base, and historical identity to emerge as the first fully independent Siberian nation. These notions that Sakha—or any of the other extant Russian colonies—would not be “viable” are founded on farce, not facts.”
In the Russian social media writing about the potential independence of former Russian colonies that are currently comprising the likely transitional state called “the Russian Federation,” Sakha indeed is often imagined as the potential “Northern United Arabs Emirates.” There is little doubt that possessing the resources, as it does, and being able to distribute the profits of these resources internally, within the region, would change the way of living, consuming, and constructing the future in Sakha.
The Sakha initiative groups are discussing the various prospects. From the beginning of the new stage of the Russian war against Ukraine (2022), Sakha Pacifist Association rejected the Russian Federation’s attempts of the revitalizing of the Soviet project, extolled the horizontal connections above the “vertical of power” (Surkov’s ideologeme and a supposed value that it has been offered to strengthen throughout Putin’s rule), questioned whether “the war is in the interest of the republic” (Source). Since then, Sakha Pacifist Organization has spoken against mobilization, sounded alarm about disappeared activist Aikhal Ammosov, and developed connections with the Free Yakutia Foundation that directly states:
“Finally, to many came the realization that there is no great Russian nation. What exists is the wild population of a territory that is called “Federation.” In reality, there is also no federation but colonies and a metropolis, there is a state-forming (gosudartvoobrazuyushchaia), main nation (titulnaia natsiia), and its slaves. Finally, we are talking openly about it.” (Source).
When the conversation takes this kind of turn, it is probably not up to the Western scholars and officials to try and stop the processes that acquired such momentum that the Russian president and other figures in the Russian government noticed and decided to use as existential scarecrows.
Of course, Sakha is just one example. Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Tuva, Chechnya, Dagestan, Buryatia, and many other Russian subjects observe the unfolding events with their intellectuals analyzing the possibilities and the plights that await their peoples in various scenarios. We should hear from them about the futures they envision, not the Western intellectuals speaking for them and proclaiming the dreams of their ancestors unviable.
It may be that the scope of the violence unleashed by the war is such that the collapse of the Russian Federation becomes a prospect that has long left the realms of offices and corridors. No collective speaker wishing to stop it can control it.